I am an idiot when it comes to predicting races. My track record speaks to that on such matters.
In any case, I have put in that I think Jornet wins WS100. I have also said that I think at least one of the top four will not finish. That is not to wish bad karma on anyone – but simply, that is the nature of mountain running – and particularly hundred milers. And even more so those in the heat.
In fact, when I think about it, it is about the dumbest sport to try to pick because there are so many stray factors that can screw your picks up. It is worst than trying in April to pick what baseball team will win the World Series in October. So many things can happen along the way. Or maybe that makes it a great sport to try to do picks in.
In any case, Jornet interview. Western links if you want to follow it … Ultralive.net twitter feed and Ultranet in general
He is getting interviewed a lot lately … another one with Mr. Jurek.
AM – 15 miles easy. Bonked well at the end … it started to get a little warm.
Ultramarathon basics … true basics.
Video from yesterday’s snake …
Interesting miles and MW correlations (and age) from DD.
I have often said how much nicer a 90 something degree day is in Colorado than an cooler day someplace else. Comparing similar temps between Broomfield and where a lot of my co workers are in Atlanta today. Notice the heat index.
Awkward interview.
ReplyDeleteThanks for chatting. Would love to watch that lead pack unfold.
I gotta search your site for my WS100 tracker.
I'm with you on this post! It's going to be a great race at the front of the pack, and anything can happen!
ReplyDeleteIf you're an idiot when it comes to picks, then I'm Super Idiot. Put it this way, if I pick you to win an event, you better not bother showing up because you'll likely not only dnf but probably end up dying in some freak accident on the course.
ReplyDeleteI always roll my eyes when "experienced" ultra runners say I or anyone else has no business predicting these races. It's like we can't read or decide things for ourselves based on facts and we're not even worthy to watch the events with our virgin eyes!
I'm going to wait and make my predictions around 10pm on Saturday night. My track record has been pretty good using this method!
ReplyDeleteI don't think you're inviting bad karma on your Top 4 prediction because it's non-specific -- so I think you're in the clear there!
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, your Jornet pick seems less popular than most, but increases your chances if looking like a genius if you're right!
Silly question on a Friday: Will the winner be likely to influence training patterns (Jornet=ski mountaineering/x-training/big stage running, Krupicka=mega miles, some guys have done more or less racing, some have more specific WS trail experience, etc.)?
Isn't one of Tony's 'things' that he had won every race he finished (he did get 2nd at Leadville Marathon though). But based on that record alone you could say that he'll either win or DNF.
ReplyDeleteI like JP's strategy.
ReplyDeleteAlso, how many 100s has Anton run/finished?
To answer Mike's question, I've already picked out my new western shirt at Goodwill, started growing my hair out and smashed my feet with a roofing hammer just in case Anton wins.
Anton is probably the most inexperienced guy in the group...
ReplyDeleteAnd Jornet is going to destroy the field.
I'm surprised at how few people are picking Geoff Roes.
ReplyDeleteFrom Jornet's interview (what few words he got in) it's clear he's a climber. Which is great. But I think Roes runs him down on terrain that is not only up.
ReplyDeleteAnd there's no flopping.
Yeah, I'd almost venture to say that while the big four include Roes and Koerner, it seems those two guys are getting a little less press than Jornet and Anton. Might just be the characters that each guy is.
ReplyDeleteI'm going w/ Roes #1, Krupicka #2, Koerner #3. I'm sure my picks will make GZ look like a prognosticating genius. I may switch up my picks after conferring with JP at 10 p.m. Saturday night. We'll pause on Green to take stock.
ReplyDeleteI'll be sticking with my picks that I posted on Matt's blog yesterday since a few other knowledgable people picked Jornet as well!! Jornet, Roes, Anton, Korner, Clark.
ReplyDeleteRick - same here except I flip Anton and Hal.
ReplyDeleteI think Tony is not the least experienced because of all the miles he does week in and week out.
ReplyDeleteTony has run 100 in a little over 13 hours.
I really believe its anybody's day at that level on this course. Its like trying to pick a winner in NASCAR.
Way harder to pick than NASCAR - 1000's more variables than driving in a circle and hoping not to get hit. It seems, until he's beaten, Hal needs some love at top spot...
ReplyDeleteIf you can pick a winner in NASCAR on any given week you should head to Vegas!
ReplyDeleteI often wanted to kill myself in NC summers. Just miserable.
ReplyDeleteI had forgotten about Anton's sprint in Rocky Raccoon.
Tim Lucho made a good point on our little jog this morning that Kilian is probably more rested than many are saying. I still have to give Roes the win though.
I pick JP to be first to the top of SoBo, then Footfeathers, and this new kid DaveBeautyandChange blows up half way up Shadow Canyon.
ReplyDelete:)
Wait, wrong picks.
who's all in for tomorrow night?
ReplyDeleteI'm expecting irunfar and WS100 site to have updates. Will Salomon have updates as well? Any other recommended sites for updates on the race? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteJust watched the snake video, love the last comment you made. When I lived in Flagstaff I would always see lion tracks in the snow on a route I did 3-4 times a week. It would scare the crap out of me even more when I realized that the tracks were there in the summer, fall and spring as well, I just couldn't see them.
ReplyDelete13% humidity? I envy you.
ReplyDeleteI pick a decent college runner to win WS100: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3595018
patiently and diligently staring at the live updates for ws...
ReplyDeletethe first photo of kilian leading three others up the first climb is cool. talk about motivation to get out and run today!
Will the English expat beat the Spaniard? Closing the gap quickly!
ReplyDeleteI don't know anything about the ultra trail scene but I do know that a snake with such a pretty tail is no joke. Gnarly.
ReplyDeleteNormally I would have crapped myself seeing that snake but I was able to spot him about 20 yards out.
ReplyDelete