Tuesday 073013

Some Pikes picks as we are now within 3 weeks. 

Men’s marathon  …

1.  Delaney
2.  Nichols
3.  Marshall
4.  Burrell

Delaney makes things interesting by showing up now on the men’s list.  His best Ascent is some six minutes faster than Nichols (which interestingly, Nichol second best climb was last year in the marathon).  Not saying Jason is going to crush a 2:13 on the up but that is a lot of spare room to work with.  I am clearly leaning towards experience here over new talent – although you could argue that Delaney does not have down experience in this race.  I’d say the top four break 4 hours.  Anton is doing UTMB so I am assuming he is a no go here.  I reserve the right to change my mind.  I am really not sure about Mackey – as he is listed as a Doubler, so he could be pretty tanked after day 1.  It gets sticky after that with guys like Malmberg, Dobson, Maksimow, Folts, Mir, Tilton and probably some newcomer fighting it out the top 10.  If a guy like Dickey can break 4:30, he might break into the top 10 as well (rather than win the masters). 

On the women’s side, I will scratch it like this …

1. Enman
2.  Kimmel
3.  Yates

I don’t know how to mix it beyond that.  I know Lewis is on the start list but she is coming off a long injury layoff.  Ortiz is always solid of course.  Shay – newcomer and hard to not pick a 10k champ, but this is a different track race.  Walter is a local and so should get some home field advantage, but she also appears to be a doubler.  Fulton has some strong credentials as well.

Men’s Ascent …

1. Randall
2.  Gutierrez
3.  Siemers

Blake is no new comer, as he was here in 2010, had a less than par day (for him) at 2:34.  I imagine with he is capable of a lot more than that given he has broken an hour at MW.  Justin thinks Cody Moat is a guy to watch. 

Women’s ascent

1.  Dobson.

If there is one race that has ridiculously horrible odds, it is the women’s Ascent.  Unless Dobson falls into a hole, she is the class of the field.  Arguably, she could make the top ten of the Ascent OVERALL again.    Beyond Kim, the rest of the women are fighting to break 3 hours.   It is no slight against the rest of the field, it is just a statement that Kim is that good.

Of course, a handful of those folks above won’t make it to the line for some reason or another.  So everything can change.  That’s why the race is run. 

On a more personal note, now that I have predicted how various folks will perform, I will look to put myself under the microscope.  I started playing with Matt C’s pace calculator last night.  I started thinking about how well I stayed to the calculator, knowing that I have never negative split the race (running from the camp up to the summit faster than from the start to the camp).  I was also wondering how well my BTMR time to the camp predicted how fast I would run that section in the race.  Here’s the data (and some probably error filled math).

Year	Start to BC	Summit	BC to Summit	Diff	BTMR trip
7	78.3	2:51:58	84.28	5.98	68.56
8	89.37	3:07:48	98.11	8.74
9	81.47	2:57:41	96.14	14.67	69.26
10	79.47	2:46:43	86.56	7.09	69
11	87.35	3:06:41	99.06	11.71	74.3
12	87.25	3:01:08	93.43	6.18

Some conclusions …

1.)  When the race is going well for me, I will split around 6 minutes slower from Camp to the top.  When it is going poorly, I will split in excess of 10 minutes.  (note, 08 is a Double year, and it looks like I played it pretty smart to the Camp that year).
2.)  generally speaking I run the Cog to Barr Camp section about equal to 3 minutes slower (with about 10 minutes from the Start to Ruxton) than I do at BTMR. 

So, if I play with Matt’s calculator and go off what I did at BTMR, and add 2 and half minutes, I get about an 87 minute climb to BC.

Assuming a good day, if I add 7 minutes to that, I finish the rest in 94 minutes.  Or summit up in 3:01.  I’d love to think I am fitter than that.  I am just going off my historical numbers and what I did at Barr to play a bit though. 

If I come down like I typically have (1:41-:1:42), I finish in 4:42-3.  Not bad, but certainly not a PR and only about what I did last year.  But again, that is why they run the race. 

Recovery day.  5.2 miles in the afternoon.  90 degrees maybe? 

MHR 150, AHR 146, 7:47 ave pace (7:34, 7:35, 7:45, 7:49, 7:54).  Curious as to how that would play out in the cool.