For what it is worth, I lean more heavily towards guys who have mountain experience over those that do not. And by mountain - I mean this mountain. That said, mountain "virgin" Randall won the whole thing last year with an age group record, and a sub 2:10 debut (only the second time that has ever happened).
Looking at the list, I like Gates. He has a come from behind win at Mount Washington and his venture into the ultra space via the Canadian Death Race. That said, Randal is not registered yet ... his showing up could shift things a bit.
I voted for King. I'd pick Gates, but I think the residual from CDR might be too much.
ReplyDeleteHmm ... not sure I agree. For us mortals, residual may be a factor but then I see guys like Nick doing crazy ass crap. Then there was KJ running some silly number of mile last year before WS. Rickey seems to be doing quite well post CDR: http://mostlypaved.blogspot.com/2011/08/canadian-death-race.html
ReplyDeleteMario Macias by over a minute. The guy crushed King this year at a high altitude race didn't he? Plus he ran 1:50 at Evans in horrible conditions. Shows he's got the altitude and hill chops?
ReplyDeleteLots of respect for Mario and I'd probably go that route ... but am going more off the "mountain experience" at this point. He is certainly a bad ass.
ReplyDeleteGotta go with Rickey Gates because of the recuperative powers of Moosehead beer after CDR.
ReplyDeletePicked Rickey Gates, rooting for fellow NZ'r Michael Aish.
ReplyDeleteKing and Randall will in and around Sierre-Zinal the week before (I think); that's a factor, especially if they're not just over there on holiday.
ReplyDeleteWent with a very big upset in Maksimow. He drinks a ton of local Colorado microbrew, and that's much cooler than Moosehead.
ReplyDeleteVery disappointed I didn't make the list, you know I'm running the Ascent, right?
So no chance that Carpenter runs the Ascent?
ReplyDeleteOf course there's a chance. Matt will show if he feels like it. But I think the marathon is his baby, and the competition is not nearly as tough.
ReplyDeleteCertainly within the realm of possibility - as Matt is a former champion in both races, and in two cases pulling off a Double win, he could declare for that.
ReplyDeleteBut, as Scott indicates - I don't think it is likely. A Double is a very tall order in any situation, and I doubt that Matt would go for that. I also don't think he would lean towards just the Ascent: he has in the past called that "Peakus Interuptus" (in short describing how he enjoys the complete nature of the marathon).
While I agree the competition is not nearly as tough in terms of depth in the PPM, I still see a tough battle between Matt and Daryn up front. I don't think he is picking the PPM over the Ascent because of the competition. I mean - I am not. If I were looking for the most competitive race out there on the mountain circuit, I'd probably going to Mount Washington.
... assuming he is racing.
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ReplyDeleteI don't think the technical nature of the trail matters so much if you are only running up. So given Mario Macias has 1h5 minute half marathon speed at altitude (Denver) when he was just cruising along unpushed, and all of his other exploits, I voted for him. But man I look at that list and I see a slew of folks who can go under 2h20m.
ReplyDeleteKeith Wood did 4h44m last year at the age of 81. This year he is predicting 4h30m. The age record is 5h28m. He is about to set a record every year he just finishes the ascent at this point.
AND he has doubled the last two years at ages 80 and 81 and he is registered to double again. Nobody has ever finished the marathon at age 82 or older, so he is blazing new trails in that category. I can't even imagine doing a marathon at age 82 on flat ground at sea level. I hope the crowds are packed late in the day Sunday to bring him on home.
I feel fat and slow, lol.
Mr. Wood told me last year he thought he'd be able to up his training this year ... as his 18 year old son would be moving on.
ReplyDeleteseen gutierrez training easy on the peak...watch for a fast start and horrific finish above 12000 ft
ReplyDeleteAnon - such a comment really requires that you put out a name.
ReplyDeleteIn any case, Simon has won the race 3 times so he is certainly a threat, but arguably his fastest years are behind him. FWIW - Simon is one of those racers that goes for it from the gun. It has meant in some races he struggles in the end. In others, well ... he wins. Kind of hard to argue with that result.
OK, more beta has arrived. Matt Carpenter has two hours & 15 minutes to enter the Ascent or the Marathon. I chatted with him today at the summit after he punched a what-looked-easy-to-me 1:03:00 from Barr Camp to the finish. Because of this training run, you may very well see Matt entering one of the races. 1:03:00 is NOTHING to sneeze at -- my best was probably right around 1:00:00, and Matt said his best was a 57:00.
ReplyDeleteSierra Zenal was today. Randall and King both raced. NO WAY they recover enough from that race and the traveling back to the USA and show up next Saturday fresh and primed. I repeat, NO WAY.
Macias just ran Georgetown-to-Idaho Springs half marathon in 1:02:00. This is not nearly as nasty or as long as Sierra Zenal. If Mario is SMART about taking it easy this week, he should be OK for the Ascent.
Gates and Manning have been keeping it low-key since their duel at Mt. Washington. I'm gonna give Tommy the edge here because I expect he's been able to train on the mountain more than Gates has been able to get in the proper, specific preparation. But since there's not been any significant races by either, nor reports about their health, I don't really know how things are with either of them. And Tommy has the motivation to beat Ricky here in his own back yard.
Masikmow is still recovering from a lower-leg injury, and I'm thinking this may not be his breakthrough year.
Aish apparently ran some sort of training run (last year?) up to the Bottomless Pit sign and claimed he was under Matt's course-record pace. I'm skeptical. And, until I talk with him (which I'm hoping to do in the next day or two), I'm gonna put in an educated guess that he has NOT trained properly for this race and will be going in thinking it'll be pretty easy to win and set a really fast time. I think Mr. Aish is probably in for the shock of his life.
RESPECT THE MOUNTAIN.
Prediction at this point:
1 - Mario Macias 2:07
2- Tommy Manning 2:15
3- Rickey Gates 2:16
4- Michael Aish 2:19
5- Peter Masikmow 2:20
6- Simon Guitierrez 2:22
(subject to change)
Good stuff Scott.
ReplyDeleteSounded like Max King has a cold pre-race at Sierre-Zinal, so maybe he didn't leave it all out there...or maybe he'll still have a cold next Saturday.
Aish was well-beaten this year at Mt. Evans, Vail Pass half, and Teva Mountain Games, so I'm guessing his expectations won't be that high.
Awesome beta Scott. I am giving the nod to Mario given his Georgetown race, and Rickey stating he is still feeling CDR (but that could be pre race antics as far as I know).
ReplyDeleteA big factor I think in this race will be guys who go for it from the gun and work each other hard through Barr. There will be some folks who pop.
More folks bailing. Very likely Max King is not going to show. Sierre-Zinal just ruined him. Read his blog on Montrail.com -- nice write-up.
ReplyDeleteNewest prediction below. Biggest wildcard is Josh Eberly, but chances are he'll drop off somewhere around treeline.
(1) Macias
(2) Manning
(3) Gates
(4) Delaney
(5) Maksimow
(6) Eberly
(7) Nichols
(8) Gutierrez
(9) Martinez
(10) Gall
Scott - saw that post by Max and concluded the same thing.
ReplyDeleteI thought Maksimow was dealing with a foot or leg injury?
Saw him on the summit a few weeks ago. He looked snappy and was not gimpy. Just a matter of whether he got the proper training in prior to the injury and then kept his fitness high with alternate activity.
ReplyDeleteIn the comments on Max's race report, he says he'll be at Pikes: comments
ReplyDelete