So, I have been mulling around what I think I can do for PPM next week, and putting up a prediction contest. I'd like to put out that I will offer a sixer of my EPO IPA for the closest guess WITHIN 15 minutes. In the case of an out the geographic area winner, I will work with that winner to to determine an alternative prize.
This contest is being sponsored by my buds over at Inside Trail so give them a look see, drop a comment and provide feedback to them as to how they can better cover the world of MUT in our blogosphere.
Closest guess in terms of seconds (regardless of over or under wins). You are only allowed one guess. In the event of a tie (which would be two people being say the same number of seconds away from my actual finish time), the tie breaker is the closest guess to JV's time. He will hate me for that but I think it is more interesting than using my ascent in the marathon as the breaker for this.
Ok I guess I will go first. My prediction is 4:29:11 for a PR!!!
ReplyDeleteAlright GZ, close to PR but not quite, I think it's gonna be hot. 4:31:22
ReplyDelete4:33:24
ReplyDeleteNo need to worry about shipping to Canada...as when I win the contest you can drop it off in person at TransRockies.
4:28:26.
ReplyDeleteYou'll pace it perfectly and it will pay off big time.
When does voting close? (or can we wait until noon on the 21st to place our bets?)
ReplyDelete4:33:33.
ReplyDelete4:32:59. mmm...beer!
ReplyDelete4:44:44
ReplyDeleteOnly because you've been forced to train at sea level. And I'll pay the shipping for the beer to Iowa...maybe even pay for some anyway regardless of the results of the contest.
4:35:14, sorry to be so negative. What do I know, I just lurk anyway.
ReplyDeleteGood luck GZ!
4:28.59
ReplyDeleteDon't let that mountain give you any lip.
I think you might be a little off peak form...but experience seems to pay off. You will run one of your better times, but no PR this year. 4:39:30
ReplyDeleteSeems to me this is more about statistics and price-is-righting it than it is about predicting it. You're quite likely to go significantly faster, but I'll shoot for the soft spot timewise and say 4:42:00.
ReplyDeleteI would take great joy in you proving me wrong.
Freezing at the top, hot at the bottom, it will be a good day. You won't PR at the top, but you'll rumble bumble stumble your way down. You'll finally nearly fall for real on the 20% decline at the very last piece of trail as you lose focus instead because you're trying to constantly figure out what you have to do to break 4:30. Then you'll be really mad that you almost fell and as Paul Sherwin would say 'turn yourself inside out' on the road and finish in 4:29:45. 2 vomits at the finish and an IV. A little bit of crying. A few 'these people are crazy' looks from the volunteers in the tent.
ReplyDeleteNobody biting at the guess at JV's time. Buggers.
ReplyDeleteSean - I think you are saying I am trying to determine what I will run based on what everyone else thinks. Fair comment but I don't think that is true. I am currently expecting to go out at more a 2:50-2:55 pace, with hopes that I can pick that up above No Name. I think this will result in a 4:35-4:40 but - as you know - that is dependent on a lot of things (mostly the down which I have become more tentative on). It could come completely unraveled and be just "let's finish this."
For what it is worth, I expect that will probably put me in the top 5 masters, but not ahead of Brad, JV or Ward - and one of the other returnees. It will be close.
4:41:39. Top 5 masters. Sea legs catch up w/ you unfortunately. Do you think that will be a factor? If not - then I'll go 10 minutes quicker and 1st Master.
ReplyDeleteOK GZ...I certainly meant no disrespect by being the slowest guess so far...tongue-in-cheek I was saying I'm "all fours you"! Since I will probably not need the tie-breaker I didn't provide one but if you'd like to get that started I'll say 4:45:10 for Jeff based on his past Ascents...but I honestly hope for a great race for everyone and you both post much faster times than I've guessed.
ReplyDeleteMcDuff - no disrespect taken! Given past performances where I have run slower than what you predicted, and was possibly in better shape - I actually expect some guesses north of my slowest time. What people predict is not an attack of character - it is an evaluation of what I can perform physically.
ReplyDeleteI am sure that what Sean is saying above is that the best way to *win* the *prediction* contest, with public guesses, involves a Price-is-Right-like strategy, which won't necessarily reflect what we really think you'll run (faster than what we guess). And since we all want beer...
ReplyDelete4:34:12
GZ -
ReplyDeleteI've been loving all the stuff about Pikes - your excitement is contagious!
Not sure what to think about your time given the BTMR result. I'll say 4:34:59. I'm sure you'll have a great race. You seem like you're in a great frame of mind, even if you're a little off of where your fitness was last year.
Any more buzz about Carpenter? I still don't see his name on the entry list. I guess we'll know for sure by Monday.
Mike - you can go over in your prediction if that is what you mean. If you are over and still closest - you win.
ReplyDeleteScott - see you at Pikes? It would be good to meet. Given the RT article, and several spotting of the Skyrunner on Pikes that I have heard about via the scuttlebutt, I expect Matt to be there. But - that is not confirmed.
4:40:00
ReplyDeleteGive the beer to Tim; he's driving out this way.
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ReplyDeleteYes, but whether going slightly over or under, the person who wants to maximize the Probability of Beer (PoB) still considers a guess that is both possible and covers a larger window of time. This is overthinking, but it is all about the beer!
ReplyDeleteIn keeping with the price is right method and based on your own expectations...
ReplyDelete4:50:00
You can drop the beer off at the cirque aid station on either your way up or down. :-)
Just bring the beer straight to the finish line tent... I'll see you in there at 4:47:30
ReplyDeleteJohn - a 4:50 while carrying a six up (bombers) might be a course record unto itself.
ReplyDelete