AM – easy 8 miles.
Just to mix things up, and to do a bit of team racing, I sent in my registration for the CTC 5k.
I still see Parr on the reg list for PPM, but NOT for PPA. Will the double happen?
I am not sure yet on top ten predictions for PPM … based on the lists that are there, it seems that Carpenter and Parr will contend for the win. How close that will be will be dependent on if Parr races and how hard he races in the PPA. I give the nod to Carpenter here in either case, but it is just about a given if Parr races the PPA. The next tier of guys are Parker, Boettcher. There is rumor that Tony wants in on this race, but I am going to go out there and say he does Pb. He is not on any reg list yet.
After that, there is the mix of Burch, Clark and Mock. This could be quite a race, with positions changing between the up and the down amongst those guys.
Rounding it out is a whole host of guys who could run sub 4:30 … Fain, Collins, Cooper, Van De Kamp, Moya, Chavez and probably at least a handful of other guys I am overlooking.
I am not sure I will even try to predict the top ten for the PPA. Because of the WMRA LDR status of this race, 
the entry list is a whole host of names of international folks that I do not have information on (and am not really willing to do research on). Th e big chatter is about the Kenyan Chemweno, as he actually has winning mountain running experience. There has been rumor that Wyatt could show up, but that is all it is – a rumor thus far. Tons of the top Americans … Blake, Gates, Masikmow, Manning … it is going to be rich.
PM – 7 miles. Tired.
After MC got 3rd in the BTMR, one wonders how much longer he can win the PPM. He won't win it at 60 years old you know. But then again, until more people can break 4 hours, he's still a pretty safe bet as he runs 3:30-3:45. Thats a pretty big gap to make up.
ReplyDeleteYeah ... it does open that question if father time has caught up to him. Certainly a chink in the armor was seen at BTMR, but PPM is a very different race.
ReplyDeleteThis is a guy that knew EXACTLY what amount of energy to expend over the Ascent to get just half a minute buffer on the fastest climb of the weekend. That does not just disappear.
If there is a dog fight on Saturday, then who is going to run with him on Sunday?
Rickey Lightfoot in the PPM is a legitimate contender. Not sure about the altitude factor, being from the UK, but definitely a top mountain runner on the Euro circuit.
ReplyDeleteThere's a Japanese guy on the PPM start who won Mt Fuji two or three years on the trot. Don't know if that is a particularly competitive event, but you'd have to think so.
Got to think both races will be more competitive than last year.
Definitely agree that both races are more competitive (then again, I am usually a guy who has predicted something like ten guys going under 4), with the Ascent being deeper.
ReplyDeleteGood catches on those two. I missed them.
Nick, last I looked, Lightfoot was doubling. That certainly makes him less competitive in PPM, 5-10 I say.
ReplyDeleteIf Tony races, I think top 5 at PPM go sub 4:00 this year. Without him, maybe still 5. Between Nick, myself, and Burch, I think only one of us will go sub 4.
I think people are reading way too much into Matt’s Barr performance. I sat behind Matt & Rickey for a good portion of the uphill ride and it appeared Matt was running a tactical race, which as it turned out was the wrong strategy for the day. Ryan took out extremely fast and appeared to be concerned only with the primes, which would typically not bode well considering the looming heat (which never really came) and distance to the first prime. I’ve always thought Ryan is probably the most under-rated climber in the game, but even I thought his early pace would not play out well for him. My guess is Matt thought the same and chose to sit back and prepare for a bigger fight coming from a mysterious Kenyan and Mr. Gates. Typically this would be ideal, unfortunately Ryan ran like an animal and made the day about guts and racing, not tactics and strategy. When you are racing on the roads or track it is much easier to decipher the type of race playing out and adapting, but in the mountains it can be a gamble when you don’t know whether the runner in front of you is 15 seconds up or 15 minutes up.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think anyone would have touch Ryan Sunday, but I think if Matt knew how the race was going to play out, his concern would have laid less with Rickey and the Kenyan and more with Ryan. Some runners crack after being handed defeat, that has not been Matt’s m.o. I’m going contrarian here and saying Matt still well on top as it relates the PPM & PPA. There will be a point where age catches up with Matt, but I don’t think that time has arrived yet.
It’s possible that as Matt ages, he will not be as dominate on certain races (that being said, I’m predicting he kills Barr next year, probably not to the extent that Ryan did, but a super fast time), but if you consider Matt’s numerous strengths and counter that with what goes out the door as you age, Matt still has numerous advantageous with regard to Pikes Peak. Sure Matt is probably not as fast as he was in his 20’s-30’s, but Pikes is no track meet. With Matt’s outrageous lung capacity, I think he still has all the tools that makes him the best runner when the air gets thin and the race starts to matter. I think the debate could go on and on, but when you really smoke out what is important specifically for the PPM & PPA, safe money is bet on Matt.
Putting predictions and speculations aside, I think people need to look not at Matt’s performance, but at the implications of Ryan’s run. Ryan broke a very solid course record and appeared to have done it easily. I think big things are going to be coming from Ryan.
BTW - Parr is on the PPA list, predicting a 2:10. One more reason why MC is the red-hot favorite for PPM.
ReplyDeleteDaryn - thanks for piping up.
ReplyDeleteGenerally, I agree, I think Matt wins PPM even if Parr does not double. (although he is now registered to do so apparently).
I also think Matt will be a bit fired up given his BTMR. He can be a bit competitive like that I hear.
It might be wishful thinking on my part, but with all the names in the PPA, I'd think we'd might actually see a non Carpenter sub 2:10.
That last happened in the Ascent in 89 with Elliott (there were a couple of other cases in the marathon in the 90s, including the famous Carpenter gets to the top first and passes out as Meija just behind and also under two ten runs down to the win).
While I believe MC wins the marathon, I don't know if he rips a sub 2:10 in the ascent portion of it, particularly if he does not need to for the win.
Ryan is running the PPA, right? so there's every reason to believe that he will be pushing Parr whether he's in front of him or behind him. Hard to see Parr not having to go all out in the PPA with that field. I have a gut feeling that Parr might be looking as PPA first and decide after if he'll run on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteYup. Hafer in the Ascent. Youngest ever to win the Ascent as well.
ReplyDelete1) By any measure, so far this year Timmy is nowhere near 2009 shape. Not even close. That could've changed significantly in the past month and could very easily change even more over the next month.
ReplyDelete2) While I agree with a lot of what Daryn said, I will nit-pick on this point: a 59min run to BC is absurdly slow for Matt. Way slower than if he was just running a conservative race b/c of competition and/or expected heat. Furthermore, once he knew the gap, if he had the legs he would've run WAY faster than 36-mid on the down, especially once he knew how close people were behind him.
3) Clearly BTMR was an off day for Matt--it just used to be that an off day for Matt still meant a win. This is the only diff that Father Time has wrought. I predict he will still KILL at the PPM.
4) Ryan ran to BC in 55min. That is SMOKIN'. He's got sub-2:10 potential at the PPA if he has a similar day.
Also should mention Tilton, Selig, Nichols, Freudenberg in the mix in the Ascent. And of course Romero.
ReplyDelete"This is a guy that knew EXACTLY what amount of energy to expend over the Ascent"...
ReplyDeleteTo your point, here is the ascent part of the PPM for the last 4 years:
2009:
MC: 2:12
Daryn: 2:18
Bernie: 2:35
...
2008:
MC: 2:12
Mackey: 2:28
Bernie: 2:34
...
2007:
MC: 2:23
Mackey: 2:30
Bernie: 2:42
...
2006:
MC: 2:08
Galen: 2:18
Zac: 2:30
...
Those are massive leads at the turnaround point. His average gap at the top to the 3rd place runner is TWENTY-FOUR MINUTES...and to your point GZ, he knows every pebble, so you know he was not killing it on the way up with those gaps...rather just doing what it took to win the fastest ascent of the weekend.
Yea Father Time continues to come knocking, but those are massive gaps to make up...
Great stuff...
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know what the fastest ascent time is for a rookie? The fastest I could find is ~2:13 by Simon G. With Pikes being Pikes, I'm guessing a lot of the international guys that show up because of the WMRA LDR status won't be a factor. It's also why I don't think it's feasible to think a guy like Wyatt could show up and come anywhere near sub-2.
As for the number of guys who go sub-4 in PPM, history says it will be way less than 5. Less than 10 guys have done it in the last 10 years. The last time 5 or more guys went sub 4 was 1995 (ironically Carpenter wasn't even in the race that year).
That is a good trivia question. Matt would know for sure.
ReplyDeleteMeija in his debut in 1990 also ran about 2:13, in the marathon, and about 20 seconds faster than Simon.
In 1995 however, Martin Rodriguez ran a 2:11 ascent in his debut marathon.
That is the fastest I found.
Smith went 2:12 in 84 in his first ascent up for the marathon.
Generally, I find it interesting that it appears the marathon used to always be the more competitive event than the ascent. That seems to have shifted in recent years though. I need to dig more into the data to really validate that though.
Whoa - - Waique did a 2:05 in the marathon in 79 in his debut.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGZ, I think I read that Tilton was out for PPA.
ReplyDeleteScottG, totally agree with what you're saying on PPM. Sub 4 is not that easy. I think Carpenter, Tony (if racing), Parker, and Parr (even if doubling, and I do agree with what Tony said about not being the same runner in 2010) are all locks for sub 4. Maybe one or two guys might be able to sneak a sub 4 in - I know Nick and myself would love to, presume that Burch will be with Nick, and see that Fain also predicted a sub 4. But look at it this way - Bernie beat Nick pretty good at Barr Trail, running his 2nd fastest time ever at Barr Trail at age 47. Last year at PPM, Bernie ran his 2nd fastest PPM ever and only ran 4:06. We may see some unexpected sub 4s, but they won't come easy.
Wyatt - just saw this up at Running Times:
ReplyDeleteBack to the dirt to finish up, we’ll head to Heiligenblut, Austria, for the 11th annual Grossglockner Mountain Run. This popular 12.7K race (nearly 900 participants from 23 nations) boasts a stout bit of climbing to nearly 5,000 total feet. Isaac Toroitich Kosgei won in 1:10:03 over defending champ and Kenyan compatriot Geoffrey Gikuni Ndungu, who ran 1:10:21. Three-time champion Jonathan Wyatt finished a close third in 1:10:33. Anna Frost ran away with the women’s race in 1:27:59, finishing nearly eight minutes ahead of second place Michaela Zwerger in 1:35:55 and third place Margit Egelseder in 1:36:18. Top results here.
Re: Wyatt -
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing how much this guy races. Check out http://www.jonospulse.com/Tour_2010.htm (scroll to the bottom).
So if I'm reading that right, that's about 5000 ft over 7.85 miles, which would be a little steeper than the average grade of Pikes Peak. But it also looks like the course finishes at an alititude of ~7000 ft. (http://www.grossglocknerberglauf.at/index.php?id=361&L=2). Assuming he could hold the same pace over 13 miles and 7,800 ft, that puts him a couple of minutes under 2 hours. But with the altitude of Pikes Peak - that's a big assumption. So the safe money would be on Carpenter's current record, but I'd love to see him go for it.
He still ain't on the list, and when I spoke to the race registrar, he had not heard the rumor of Jono showing up.
ReplyDeleteBut it would be cool.
Back when Wyatt went 56:?? at MW he may have been able to come close to the PPA record, but I don't think he's anywhere near that type of speed right now. He's also nowhere near Manitou Springs either as far as we know...
ReplyDelete