PPM field predictions

The PPA men's field is crazy loaded, and the whole prediction thread is over on runcolo.

Sooo ... my current nickel on the PPM field (thanks to the guys who gave me the early feedback on this) ... I am not the gambler some are, but I will also try (for the first time) Meltzer like odds. Inevitably, one or more of the predictions will be wrong. Someone will have a bad day and someone will have a better day. That's why we run the race and not just mail the results in. There is someone buried in the entry list that I have over looked.

1.) Carpenter (2-1). Yeah, beat at BTMR and so everyone is talking about how father time has caught up to him. It catches us all, but the guy is still the king of the mountain, is stronger than anyone above treeline, knows the course by the pebble and ran an exacting effort in his run up in the marathon last year to get the fastest ascent of the weekend.

2.) Parker (3-1). Daryn is also well proven on the course and went under 3:50 last year. That is pretty rare air.

3.) Parr (4-1). Here things get interesting and I expect some flack over this pick. I am picking Parr to win the Ascent. And to do that, I think he has to go sub 2:10. And I think that leaves him fairly waxed for the Marathon the next day. Fresh, he might outright contend for the win but after going 13 miles up and 7800 feet in the deepest PPA field ever (I'll say 15 go under 2:30), he makes the podium - but not the top spot.

4.) Boettcher (5-1). Bernie is having a phenomenal year, and showed it with a great run at BTMR (and other races since). He always executes very well here. Although there is some rumor he is doing a 10k in Taos the day before. And actually, for him, that could be a perfect sharpening workout. Expect him to go sub 4 for the first time. Yeah ... at the age of 47.

5.) Clark (9-1). Also where things get interesting. This and the next two are tough picks because they are pretty equally matched but with different strengths, and Nick and Justin are friends of mine. Justin has the foot speed (2:29 marathon), Clark can climb, and Burch is apparently a monster on the down hills. I give the nod to the climber here as that is where so much of this race is made or lost. A five minute lead on the climb is a huge gap to cover (although do-able) on the descent - particularly when you lose sight of people below treeline. Justin seems a touch less confident about his climbing, but is putting in the homework - so this could be a barn burner.

6.) Mock (10-1). He dances with sub 4 here as well.

7.) Burch (11-1). Less familiar with him directly but is apparently an absolute demon on the downs. How many scalps does he grab on the down? He sort of gets a pass on my rule of picking guys who have raced at Pikes, because he has done well at many other races with significant climbs and altitude.

There is 4:11 runner Fain, so he is the logical choice for spot 8.

After this, it gets really tough and many variables are in the mix. There are several Spainards in with competitive entries. One, Castaner is a winner of a Skymarathon, and then three listed in the marathon (Arsensio, Ginesta, Gispert) under the head of the Spanish WMRA team. I have a bit of a tough time picking the unknown, unproven entities on the mountain. So this means, guys like Handler are a bit of a crap shoot as to whether they show up, whether they race it well. I have run down sub 2:20 marathoners above tree line and watched 2:45 marathoners run away. Nothing against Carlos - I just can't make a pick for him when he has not run the hill yet.

Anyway ... if you are dancing in the sub 4:30 range, it typically means a top ten spot, almost definitely top 15. I am thinking it will take a sub 4:20 to break the top ten this year.

Various names to consider ... Collins, Cooper, Malmberg, Moya, Chavez, Miessner (who has a competitive entry but does not appear on the competitive bio page), Grauch.